Article publication date
July 2025
ARPANSA review date
July 2025
Summary
This study evaluated the global burden of skin cancer among adults 65 years or older from 1990 to 2021 and used this information to project the global burden out to 2050. The study used data collected from the cancer registries of 204 countries and territories, including Australia, that are detailed in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 database. Cancer incidence was collected for melanoma, and keratinocyte cancers (KC) including squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and basal cell carcinoma (BCC). The authors calculated the incidence rates per 100,000 people for these skin cancers.
Melanoma incidence rates in 2021 were 20 (per 100,000) and projected to fall by 40% to 12 (per 100,000) by 2050. Both KC skin cancer types are expected to rise by 2050 with a 148% increase in BCC and a 53% increase in SCC. The incidence of skin cancers was higher for men than women both in 2021 and in 2050. The study concluded that the incidence and prevalence of keratinocyte cancers skin cancer in older people is likely to increase and there is a need to enact prevention and treatment strategies for these high-risk populations.
Published in
JAMA Dermatology
Link to
Burden of Skin Cancer in Older Adults From 1990 to 2021 and Modelled Projection to 2050
ARPANSA commentary
This ecological study reported that, despite some decreases in melanoma incidence, overall skin cancer incidence is expected to rise globally between now and 2050 due to increases in SCC and BCC. There were limitations with the data as some countries do not provide data on SCC and BCC in their cancer registries. Australia also does not report on incidence of BCC and SCC as they are generally not life-threatening, often requiring only simple excision for treatment. This lack of reliable data could affect the accuracy of these forward projections, particularly for Australians.
The downward trend in melanoma incidence in Australia has been observed in a previous study (Pinto et al 2024) and is also confirmed by Cancer Council data. However, despite this positive outcome, melanoma incidence and mortality rates in Australia remain some of the highest in the world and two-thirds of Australians will receive a skin cancer diagnosis of some type in their lifetime. As such, skin cancers, including melanoma, continue to constitute a large public health burden.
This study indicates that further work is needed to improve Australians’ sun protection behaviours and improve awareness to avoid the dire predictions this study has made for skin cancer incidence in the future. There needs to be continued focus on UV index awareness in Australia and the Slip, Slop, Slap, Seek and Slide messaging to prevent future skin cancers. Awareness of current UV index levels can be improved by utilising ARPANSA’s network of monitoring stations in Australia or through the freely available SunSmart Global UV app which also carries information for international cities. More information on UV protection can be found on the ARPANSA Sun Protection factsheet.
