Article publication date
12 May 2026
ARPANSA review date
09 June 2026
Summary
This study modelled the effect of ozone depletion on the incidence and mortality of ultraviolet (UV) radiation related diseases like cataract and various types of skin cancer in both the USA and Australia. The model first calculated the influence of historical and projected emissions of ozone depleting substances on stratospheric ozone and the subsequent influence on environmental UV radiation. The model then combines this with information about populations in Australia and the USA to compute changes in the rates of relevant health effects.
Depletion of stratospheric ozone was found to have slightly increased the incidence of related health effects including 0.5% increase for cataract, 1% for melanoma and 5% increase for squamous cell carcinoma in both countries. The study estimated that Australians were exposed to 24% more biologically weighted UV radiation than the USA’s population. The difference arose from the closer proximity of Australia’s population distribution to the equator, lower stratospheric ozone at comparable latitudes and disparities in earth-sun distance in comparable seasons. However, the related incidence and mortality calculations greatly underestimated the actual difference in incidence and mortality between Australia and the USA, particularly for basal- and squamous cell carcinoma. The authors attribute this disparity to factors that are not captured by their model such as genetic susceptibility, exposure patterns and diagnosis practices.
Published in
GeoHealth
Link to
ARPANSA commentary
This study applied sophisticated methods to model ozone depletion and calculate its subsequent effect on various health endpoints. The calculated influence of ozone depletion on UV levels highlights the importance of adherence to the Montreal Protocol, the international agreement that prohibits continued use of ozone depleting substances. Without this key international intervention, stratospheric ozone would have continued to deplete and environmental UV intensity would have continued to rise in tandem. As the overwhelming majority of skin cancers can be attributed to sun exposure (Olsen et al., 2015; Armstong & Kricker, 2001), a further rise in environmental UV radiation caused by continued ozone depletion would cause a commensurate rise in the related health endpoints.
The study also highlights the large difference in the rates of skin cancer between Australia and the USA and that it is unlikely that this large difference can be wholly attributed to the difference in environmental UV radiation. As acknowledged by the authors, there are factors that contribute to the incidence and mortality of skin cancers and cataract that are not accounted for in their model. This aligns with previous research that has demonstrated that certain patterns of exposure behaviour produce a large effect on the incidence of skin cancer (Kricker et al., 2007; Veierød et al., 2010).
Taken together, these findings underscore the importance of vigilant sun protection practices using all five sun safety measures whenever the UV index is 3 or more. ARPANSA maintains a network of UV monitoring stations across Australia that can be used to see the UV index in real time. The SunSmart Global UV app also provides information about UV intensity and recommended sun protection times for all locations.
